It’s time, guys and gals: Bakkt is finally here. Shortly after the publishing of this article, the Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts from the much-ballyhooed exchange will finally be going live.
As spotted by analyst Salsa Tekila, the physically-deliverable contracts from Bakkt will begin trading at 7:55 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST) — this translates to 4:55 PM for those on the West Coast, 12:55 AM for those in jolly old England, and 7:55 AM for those in Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.
— SalsaTekila (JUL) (@SalsaTekila) September 21, 2019
If you were to ask Bitcoin investors after the announcement of Bakkt in late-2018, most would say that this event will be decidedly bullish for BTC.
But interestingly, the times have changed. There are now hundreds of investors and analysts on Twitter that expecting for the Bakkt launch to go south, creating the potential for at least a short-term drop.
Bakkt Bitcoin Futures, the Best Thing Since Sliced Bread?
According to many optimists, Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures are the best thing since sliced bread.
But, not everyone thinks this way. Analyst Alex Krüger recently conducted a poll, asking his followers if they think that Bakkt will flop out of the gates or launch successfully. Out of the 2,000 votes so far, 50% think that the platform will flop.
Crazy, especially when you consider that everyone and their dog was bullish on the exchange earlier this year.
CME bitcoin futures traded $460 million on its first week. Current volume is around $700 million. The Van Eck fake ETF traded $0 on its first week.
How much volume will Bakkt attract is a key variable for the week ahead. Would you expect Bakkt to flop or to launch successfully?
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) September 22, 2019
A primary point of contention here seems to be that this may be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, meaning that Bakkt will actually underperform the expectations of bulls, leading to a precipitous dump.
Bakkt launch is imminent, and the wedge is likely going to need to break within the week.
Which way are we going?
Sell the news, and we plummet?
Or does Bakkt open up a wave of new investments? pic.twitter.com/BhGyaxykLk
— Jeff Kirdeikis (@JeffKirdeikis) September 22, 2019
Should Be Bullish Long Term
Even if Bakkt’s new cryptocurrency platform doesn’t make a splash in the Bitcoin markets in the short term, it sure should in the long run.
Prominent analyst PlanB explained that these new derivatives will draw in institutions due to their ability to provide liquidity. Derivatives, especially futures, give investors the opportunity to sell their assets if needed, which is something often not available in Bitcoin, where large trades either cause large slippage in order books or take a while to complete due to over-the-counter logistical concerns.
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That’s not all. PlanB also explained that Bakkt is extremely important to Bitcoin also because the BTC futures markets in operation right now are primarily “cash-settled”, meaning that no physical BTC is involved in the resolution of futures contracts. This, for those unaware, means that someone could sell more BTC than they actually have, or even more coins than there are in circulation.
What’s also important is that Bakkt mandates sellers to actually obtain the BTC they want to sell; Bakkt gives the buyers the chance to redeem their contracts for actual coins. Per PlanB, this new dynamic, which he claims “changes the whole game”, in the market may make investors scared to short Bitcoin, as it creates a certain market effect that only leans into BTC’s digitally scarce nature.
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